Hindustan Unilever (HUL) exceeded consensus estimates in Q4FY26, driven by lower overheads and 6 per cent consolidated volume growth. However, the company anticipates further price hikes to counter an expected 8-10 per cent material cost inflation, while maintaining a mid-term margin guidance of 22.5-23.5 per cent.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are closely monitoring crude oil prices and considering low single-digit price increases, while consumer durables firms have already begun passing on significant price hikes to consumers due to rising input costs exacerbated by the West Asia conflict.
Companies are already diversifying sourcing, raising prices, and reworking operating models as the disruption drags on.
The ongoing West Asia conflict is expected to severely impact the supply of affordable housing in India, as rising input costs further erode already thin developer margins. Fluctuations in crude oil and gas prices, coupled with higher freight costs, are driving up prices of essential construction materials like cement and steel, making new projects increasingly unviable for developers.
'With inflationary pressures now at elevated levels and the adverse cost environment persisting, the company has to pass on a portion of the increased costs to the market, while continuing to ensure that the impact on customers is kept to the minimum extent possible.'
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation surged to 9.68 per cent in May, up from 8.26 per cent in April, primarily due to significant increases in the prices of fuel and power, manufactured goods, and food items.
Indian realty developers are contemplating price increases for ongoing and upcoming projects to offset margin pressures caused by rising input costs and supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the West Asia conflict. Input and labour costs have surged by 5-12%, directly impacting developer margins, especially for under-construction projects.
Indian cement manufacturers, despite a stable Q4FY26, are bracing for significant profitability pressures from Q1FY27 onwards due to escalating input costs, primarily driven by the West Asia conflict's impact on coal and petcoke prices.
'If 5% of the total revenue was spent on LPG (pre-war), it is now expected to double. The overall food cost in restaurants is expected to rise by 4-6%.'
The Reserve Bank of India has increased its retail inflation projection for 2026-27 to 5.1 per cent, up from an earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent. This revision is primarily attributed to mounting input costs, driven by the pass-through of higher global energy prices to domestic petrol and diesel rates, which have seen significant increases since May.
Suzuki Motorcycle India Ltd (SMIPL) has revised its domestic two-wheeler sales growth estimate for FY27 downwards from 7-8 per cent, citing rising commodity costs due to the ongoing West Asia conflict and its impact on consumer affordability.
Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first hike in over four years, as state-run fuel retailers pass on some of the impact from surging global crude prices, which have been exacerbated by the Iran war.
Indian paint majors, including Asian Paints, Berger Paints, and Kansai Nerolac, reported better-than-expected performance in Q4FY26, driven by steady demand, improved product mix, and strategic price hikes. The sector is also benefiting from reduced competitive intensity as new players also increase prices, narrowing the gap with incumbents.
India's manufacturing sector activity reached a three-month high in May, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 55.0, driven by robust domestic demand, infrastructure projects, and new business gains despite ongoing inflationary pressures.
Indian companies recorded their highest profit margins in 21 quarters during Q4FY26, reaching 11.3 per cent, primarily due to significant savings from lower employee costs and reduced interest payments, which offset rising raw material prices.
India's services sector experienced its strongest growth in six months in May, with the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index rising to 59.8. This expansion was driven by healthy demand, new client acquisitions, and improved new business intakes, alongside a softer rise in cost burdens.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
Increased input costs due to geopolitical conflict in West Asia and unseasonal rain in March negatively impacted volumes of consumer durables makers, particularly air conditioners, in Q4FY26, leading to projected declines in EBITDA and APAT despite revenue growth.
India's private sector activity saw a significant recovery in April, driven primarily by robust growth in manufacturing output and sales, following a three-year low in March attributed to the West Asia conflict.
India's consumption stocks, which have outperformed the broader market, are now facing significant pressure due to a gradual rise in fuel prices and the potential for higher inflation. Analysts warn that companies may be forced to pass on increased input costs to consumers, potentially hurting demand across both staples and discretionary categories, with a looming threat of deficient monsoon rainfall further exacerbating inflationary concerns.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
Dabur India's stock has fallen over 17 per cent since the start of the Iran war, driven by concerns over a weak monsoon, the West Asian crisis, and rising input costs, which are expected to impact the company's revenues and margins, particularly affecting its significant rural sales and international markets.
The World Bank has increased India's economic growth projection for FY27 to 6.6 per cent, citing resilient domestic demand, while simultaneously cutting its global economic growth outlook due to the conflict in West Asia.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has warned that the ongoing West Asia crisis is not merely a geopolitical issue but will directly lead to higher fuel costs for common people and businesses, impacting shipping, input availability, and export orders.
Fitch Ratings has warned that India's oil marketing companies (OMCs) could face significant credit pressure if crude oil prices remain elevated, leading to eroded earnings and increased working capital needs due to delayed fuel price pass-through.
India's manufacturing sector experienced a mild recovery in April, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 54.7 from 53.9 in March. However, inflationary pressures intensified, with input costs increasing at the fastest pace since August 2022, largely attributed to the Middle East conflict.
For instance, it has launched its fruit drink 'Minute Maid Pulpy Orange' in a tetrapack of 250 ml priced at Rs 15 compared with 500 ml PET bottles for Rs 25.
The industry experienced new pressures on its operating margins and sales in the wake of increasing input costs and new excise regime. For the domestic spirits manufacturing industry, the cost of raw materials such as molasses doubled since March. Packaging costs rose by 15-20 per cent. The widening of services tax resulted in 50 per cent new services to be taxed at 12.36 per cent. Besides an increase in labour costs, inflation also played havoc with the operating margins.
India's services sector growth slowed in March, reaching a 14-month low, according to the HSBC India Services PMI. The slowdown reflects weaker new business intakes and rising input costs, particularly in fuel, transport, and logistics.
Analysts are expecting pharmaceutical companies to post sales growth of 10-11 per cent in the second quarter this financial year while the Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) margins are anticipated to improve by about 110 basis points. Ebitda improvement will be led by lower input costs because prices of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are 5-15 per cent lower year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Axis Capital said sales growth would be around 10 per cent, of which growth in the India market would be 11 per cent or so.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded India's growth forecast for financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent, attributing the revision to weaker consumption and industrial activity, elevated energy prices, and rising input costs stemming from the West Asia conflict.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the Indian government to gradually restore the Rs 10-per-litre cut in special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel over six to nine months. This move aims to relieve pressure on government finances as crude oil prices stabilise, without significantly impacting consumer sentiment.
Weighed down by a sharp rise in input costs and limited ability to pass on the burden to customers, India Inc's operating margins took a hard knock in the first quarter of 2008-09 even though demand was buoyant as reflected in zooming sales.
German luxury carmaker Mercedes-Benz India on Thursday said it will hike prices of select models by up to two per cent from January 1, 2022, to offset feature enhancement and rising input costs. At the same time, Audi announced a price increase of up to 3 per cent across its entire model range, effective from January 1 next year. Mercedes, however, said it is committed to price protection to customers who have booked their cars and are waiting for more than four months for select models.
Several non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are observing an increase in early-stage delinquencies within their micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) loan portfolios, primarily driven by supply chain disruptions and escalating raw material costs exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
Global oil prices fell on Thursday to their lowest levels since before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, offering a significant economic tailwind for India, the world's third-largest crude importer, by easing inflation risks, reducing the import bill and improving the government's fiscal position.
'While higher prices may create some financial burden for patients and caregivers in the short term, uninterrupted access to treatment remains the greater priority.'
The start of the West Asia conflict has led to a sharp increase in crude-linked raw material prices, pushing up the price of helmets across the country.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
Escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia are beginning to disrupt India's automotive supply chain, leading to rising commodity prices, logistics bottlenecks, material shortages, and pressure on consumer demand, with two-wheeler makers already raising prices.
